The $40K Surgery Recovery Challenge

Our Hero:
Fathers, lock up your daughters.

Ladies: please try and control yourselves.

This fine specimen is in a sad, sad state of affairs, having just had both his upper and lower jaws broken and repositioned. Not to mention 2 separate tubes threaded down his throat and into his stomach, and a catheter the diameter of a garden hose removed by an immigrant nurse whose native translation of "gently, please" equated to something along the lines of "why don't you just yank it out full force, and then pour balsamic vinegar directly into my decimated urethra."

So I'm in rough shape and more or less confined to my apartment for the next month or so, but I'm determined to make something positive out of this whole experience, and turn this ugly bastard into.....well, an ugly bastard with more money. $40,000 in the next 30 days, to be specific: that's the goal. I wanted to make it a nice round $50,000 but after crunching some numbers, I highly doubt I'd be able to make it to $50K. $40K is still challenging, but at least in the realm of reasonability.

This will also be somewhat of a dry-run to see just what kind of success I could have (financially, at least) playing at what would probably amount to poker-burnout levels. Back when I was playing full-time last Fall, it was only at 3/6 and 5/10...I always lamented the fact that I didn't really jump up to 15/30 until January, and wished I could have had some time to play that full-time. Well, this is it, I suppose. I've always thought (although never really verbalized to anyone else) that if I really put the axe to the grindstone, I could make a half-million in a year. Jesus, I can't believe I wrote that, but I honestly do believe that playing poker for maybe 70 hours / week could yield that kind of return. What kind of life would that be? Well, not much of one, I'm sure, and it's likely I'd burn out after just a month or two...but hey: I've got no choice in the next month other than to be laying up in bed with an icepack on my face, so I figure this is just about as perfect an opportunity to get this little experiment out of my system as any. If nothing else it will teach me a little more discipline in handling bad beats...because if I try to scream out in frustration any time during recovery, it's likely they'll be picking the lower half of my jaw up off the floor.

9.05.2005

Concluding Post: Monday, Sept. 5th

Final Results

Total Profit: $47,400
Total Hands: 51,000
Winning Days: 21
Losing Days: 6
High Day: $8,100
Low Day: -$1,800

The Limit Story
Profit: $48,800
Hands: 39,900
BB/100: 3.35

The No-Limit Story
Profit: -$1,400
Hands: 11,100

Concluding remarks:

Well, it was an experience, to be sure. Frankly, I'm just proud of myself for actually making it. When I set a $40,000 goal, I thought it was attainable, but wasn't sure that I'd be able to get in enough hands to make it, especially after the first few days, when I was really feeling the after-effects of the surgery: I found I couldn't concentrate for more than 20 minutes at a time. Maybe the fact that my profits took off in the second half was a result of my condition improving substantially -- good cards obviously had a lot to do with it as well. Perhaps prophetically, my profits during this challenge nearly exactly equalled the cost of my surgery -- now here's hoping insurance comes through like they said they would so that I can pocket some of this cash and buy myself something pretty.

I guess the obvious elephant in the room is the limit vs. NL thing. Here's the rub -- I had always been a limit specialist; hardly ever ventured near a NL game, simply because it wasn't my thing. A few months ago, though, I started playing a lot of NL using a short-stack strategy popularized in a recent book by Ed Miller. In a nutshell, it's basically a "NL for Dummies" all-in strategy that brought me a lot of success...so much so, that I actually played NL nearly exclusively for a couple of weeks before my surgery. Obviously it wasn't quite as successful during these few weeks. So feel free to deride my NL game -- I never held myself out as much of a NL player, and the short-stack strategy I use is about as unsophisticated as they come, and I'm sure would be ridiculed by most serious NL pro's. As a NL-for-Dummies approach, though, I'm not sure there's anything better out there.

This much is certain, though -- and let me step into the arrogance-booth here for a moment -- I've become one hell of a mid-stakes limit player. When I was determining what an appropriate $ goal would be for this experiment, I was basing my calculations on a projected BB/100 of around 1.5, which I secretly worried was too optimistic a projection, given that I had subsided largely within the 1.0 - 1.3 range in the previous months. Well over the 40,000 hands I played at 15/30 through 30/60 during these 27 days, I managed 3.35. Go ahead and tell me my sample size is too small or that I was obviously running exceptionally well. Some of that is true -- I doubt there are more than a handful of players sustaining 3+ at those stakes -- in fact, I used to tell myself that getting to 2.5 would be a real accomplishment. To be honest, none of that shit even matters. It's all just a number. Bottom line is that I've become the type of player I wouldn't ever want to be sitting in a game with, and I'm pretty happy with that.

Lastly, the experience as a whole -- to state the obvious, after a while, poker gets really really boring. This challenge was one of the ways I hoped to make things a little more interesting, knowing that I wasn't going to have much of a choice while recovering from surgery and confined to my little apartment. I don't think I could do this full-time...just too antisocial an exercise, but a big FU to those who doubted my ability to achieve the goals I laid out in my first few posts. Honestly, I never really understood the poker-jealousy thing -- it's like some people treat poker as some kind of big zero sum meta-game where if one person succeeds, it somehow detracts from their own abilities or results, so they feel the need to criticize as foolhardy lofty goals that others set -- after all, if you're unwilling to put in the work to make your own building the tallest in town, much easier to simply chop down every else's and achieve the same result, right? Anyway, I'm looking forward to taking a little break from poker now, and getting back to my real life, which had been pretty fun lately, surgery notwithstanding.

Contest: my actual tally: $47,400. Closest to the pin winner: Ruben DB with an impressive guess of $46,542 -- honorable mention to Subby ($43,000) and Jamey S. ($43,922). Random draw winner: Michael V. The two of you can send me an email and have either a poker chip set, or $50 donation to a charity of your choice.

EPILOGUE: So because my sleep cycles are so ungodly from keeping some fairly odd hours during this challenge, I tried to sleep the following night, only to find myself tossing and turning for over 3 hours, unable to fall asleep. So I got up and (what else), opened up a few tables. Long story short, I managed a tidy $3,000 during the wee hours that morning to put me over $50,000! So even while I guess I have to stand by officially ending the challenge yesterday, let $50,000 in 28 days be my legacy for this thing.

That's it; thanks for following along. Fin.

Here's a look at the final detailed chart:




9.03.2005

Saturday, September 03

Success! Eclipsed $40,000 on the 25th day of this thing, with a nice $4,000 push today. Technically, I've got 5 days left on this thing, so now any further profits are just gravy. $50,000 would be a nice round figure, but I think that's pretty far outta reach...

EDIT: alright, i've updated the chart around 6 times in the last 4 hours, because i just kept doing so well -- including a $1,350 pot at a 15/30 game, when my top boat got capped 3 ways all the way to river. Ended up with my biggest ever single day win: eight thousand dollars. Pretty wild. Maybe $50,000, which seemed like just a pipe dream earlier tonight isn't completely out of the realm of possibility.

EDIT #2: Executive decision -- I'm ending the official 'challenge' tomorrow, Monday, which will be the 27th day. There was never anything magical about 30 days anyway, but school starting the day after Labor Day gives me a pretty compelling reason to call it quits tomorrow. Would have been nice to shoot for $50,000 in 30 days, but it makes more sense to end things now.

8.31.2005

Friday, September 2nd

Looks like this thing might be a little tighter than my recent successes had projected...after a brief cup of coffee at $38,000, I'm now floundering around $34K with 6 or so days left. I'm thinking of hiring a midget to drop me with a cattle prod any time I go near a NL game -- despite close to 3BB/100 at limit so far this challenge, it's just so easy to get bored, and then I wander over to NL...I'm still up a few grand on the year, but clearly it's not my forte. Now accepting resumes. Full medical benefits. Stocked minifridge. Casual Fridays.

8.29.2005

Monday, August 29th

Finish line in sight: I don't know what to say -- I managed $5,500 in 1,000 hands this afternoon to breeze through $35,000 -- (what do you mean 20 BB/100 isn't sustainable??) so things are looking good for the overall goal. Of course I said that about my $50,000 year to date goal back in May and followed that prediction with a 20,000 hand break-even stretch, so i suppose anything can happen. Didn't have access to my dual monitor setup, so had to make do on the laptop, which I used to run a $750 buy-in on a single table up over $5,000 (it was a good table). 8 day winning streak, which has netted me a pretty absurd $27,000. Don't get the idea that I'm rolling in hundred dollar bills though...the braces+surgery set me back $44,000 (hopefully insurance will be covering 2/3 of that though, but they're bitches, so who knows).

8.27.2005

Saturday, August 27th

The beat goes on. $12,000 left to go in 12 days, and just one problem: I'm actually starting to get better. Surgery was more than 3 weeks ago, and most of the swelling is gone, even while my jaw's still wired shut. But it's getting close to the time for me to get back to my normal life, meaning I just can't be logging 2,000+ hands / day for much longer. I don't doubt I can stick it out another 12 days, but after that, I think I'll be looking forward to taking a little break from poker...

8.23.2005

Halfway Report

Days: 15
Hands: 32,500
Winnings: $23,400
Winning days: 11
Losing days: 4
High day: $7,400
Low day: - $1,250
Limit winnings: $23,300 (over 24,000 hands)
NL winnings: $45 (yes, forty-five dollars, over 8,500 hands)
Limit BB / 100: 2.75 (over 24,000 hands)

Commentary: Holy crap: my hot run has continued for another session -- putting $15,000 in my pocket over these 3 scorching days, and more than getting me back on my goal pace, after floundering for most of the first half of this little experiment. Something I've learned: I should stay the hell away from no-limit; although I maintain that I was victim of around $4,000 in beats, so I really don't think I'm quite as bad as my embarassing $45 NL profit would imply (although I know I'm not allowed to complain about anything given my success so far). As far as my limit game, well all I can say is that I think it's as sharp as it's ever been. Back around February, I opined that at 15/30, a BB/100 of 1.0 was very good, 2.0 was excellent, and 2.5 was expert. During my first few months at 15/30, my BB/100 was somewhere between 0.8 and 1.2, which I was quite happy with at the time...during my first 23,000 hands in this experiment, I'm at 2.75, which I'm sure is higher than the "true" figure, but I'm nonetheless quite happy with my game, especially the few loose-aggressive tweaks I've added in the past month.

Contest update: For any of those interested, I got around 18 guesses at where I'll be after 30 days, ranging from around $20,000 to $53,000 -- most of the guesses seemed to be in the $24G - $32G range. For anyone else interested in entering the random drawing portion of the contest for a chip set or donation to a charity of your choice, you can still send in an email to challenge@pokercroaker.com with your full name and email.

Here's a detailed chart showing my 15-day progress:


Monday, August 22nd

Back on track: After floundering below my "pace line" since day 2, I've made it back to the $40,000 pace thanks to $10,000 in 2 days. More detail to come in a midway report after day 15 tomorrow.

8.22.2005

Sunday, August 21st

Best...day...ever

Well that helped; after 4 very lackluster days during which I started to really doubt that I had much of a chance to come anywhere close to my $40K goal, I blistered the tables today for over $7,400, completely obliterating my previous daily bests of $4,400 and $3,600. I'll write up a detailed half-way report after day 15 in a couple days.

8.18.2005

Wednesday, August 17

I had the most surreal day of poker yet yesterday...suffering the biggest ever slide I've experienced: almost $3,800 to the downside, and then -- perhaps fueled by the impending humiliation of having to write about a four thousand dollar loss here -- hammered out 3,500 hands until I made it all back, and went to bed with a $100 profit. Here's what the 1-day chart looked like:


8.16.2005

Monday, August 15th

Why I hate no-limit. Within my first 250 hands of sitting down:

  • Board of A,A,Q,8,6 -- I have A6, get all my money in, lose $700 pot to A8
  • Board of A,A,4,7,7 -- I have A9 and happily get all my money in...lose to...wait for it...quad 7s -- that's an $800 pot
  • I steal-raise with A,9 from cut-off, button and both blinds call. Flop comes A,9,4 - I happily get all my money in against 2 opponents; one of them hits flush on river for $1,300
  • I get all-in preflop with KK vs. opponent with AKs, and he hits 2 aces on turn and river for $1,200

I couldn't even tell you which one of those was the "worst" beat...I think the quad sevens sort of just stunned me -- all I was expecting was a split-pot anyhow, but I think that A,9 hurt the most because 3 opponents essentially called bullshit on my semi-legit steal attempt and the flop hit me square in the face, which is why the river flush stung so badly...I'm going to go ahead and say that the fact that I actually came out $2,000 to the good side on the day is one of the greater feats in my short poker-playing career.

You may wonder why I even bother playing NL, given how lopsided my limit vs. NL results have been thus far in my challenge (+$9,200 in 11,000 hands vs. -$1,700 in 2,000 hands); all I can can say is that I had been doing extraordinarily well playing NL in the previous weeks...and I guess the very fact that I'm able to get all-in being an overwhelming favorite as in the hands (well, 3 of them at least) above is testament to the fact that in the dreaded long-run, I'll come out on top.

8.14.2005

Sunday, August 14: 7-day Report

Seven days down, 23 to go. I actually played 2800 hands yesterday, and it's not something I think I'd like to repeat. Here are the major #s, followed by a few bullet point miscellaneous nuggets. They may not all add up precisely, b/c of misc pokertracker glitches.

Days: 1 - 7
Total hands played: 11,100
Total profit: $7,100


  • Approx profit split: Limit: $8,500, NL: -$1,400 (oops)
  • BB / 100 for Limit (15/30 through 30/60): 2.55 over 9,500 hands

8.13.2005

Saturday, August 13

I find it very interesting that for the first time in nearly 8 months of playing the 15/30, my playing stats are beginning to change. Ever since my days of multi-tabling the 3/6 last Fall, I've kept stats of approx VPIP 18, PFR 9, aggro 3+, but in the last month or so, my stats have evolved to approx VPIP 22, PFR 12 (depending on the particular opponents, of course).

I don't know if this is necessarily a good or bad development, although I'll remark that I made an entry in the blog a few months ago remarking that the opponents who I had the most difficulty against weren't the classic 18/9 TAGs (because, for better or worse, you pretty much always knew where you stood against those guys), but the slightly looser 20/12 types, because they were capable of throwing the occasional curveball your way. So now I'm one of those guys, which I think I'm pleased about. That's not to say those stats make me a better player in and of themselves; it's not like a continuum, where a 20/12 player is necessarily more advanced than an 18/9, but I'm feeling a lot more comfortable playing in this slightly more aggressive style, and feel it's a little better suited to the 15/30 and up limit games.

8.12.2005

Friday, August 12

I've come to a few unfortunate conclusions in the past couple days:

1) It's hard to update this thing every day, although I'll do my best. Maybe I'll add a daily + / - chart up near the graph, so at least I'll be able to post daily results, and then just get in commentary every few days when I'm able.

2) I don't think I'm going to make it. Yes, sad, but probably true. It's a lot harder to get in as many hands as I need to than I had originally thought. The first few days, I barely ground out 800 hands, but didn't think much of it because I managed to book good winnings. Now that reality (aka a few losing days) has smacked me in the face, I realize now that I don't think I'm going to be able to get in the 2,000 hands / day needed to have even an outside shot at this thing. I got in 1,600 yesterday and wanted to die. I'm hardly waving the white flag yet, but this is going to be a tad more trying than I thought. I used to be able to multitable up to 10 3/6 tables, and I think I probably made the mistake of assuming I'd be able to handle at least 6 to 8 20/40 tables...but I know my play starts to deterioriate somewhat when I've got more than 4 tables going at those stakes.

8.09.2005

Day 2 Report

Daily result: +$185
Daily hands: 935

Total to date: +$2,145
Hands to date: 1,730

Comments:
I was up $2,200 after around 300 hands this morning, and while it would have been sweet to have gotten started with 2 monster days, a $980 5-out river and some poor judgmenet on other tables brought me back down near practically even. Oh well. It can't all be sunshine and puppy dogs.

Prize offer open to everyone

What the hell: my previous blog had over 13,000 hits, and this thing would essentially be nothing more than an exercise in prose if it didn't have a healthy contingent of readers, so I figure I'll add in something for you too.

I'll pick two readers who will win their choice of the following:
1. A new 300-chip set of poker chips in a fancy case, or
2. A $50 donation made to the charity of your choosing

Send an email with your full name, and a guess as to what my final total at the end of 30 days might be (after poker + rakeback) to challenge@pokercroaker.com

One winner will be the one who comes closest to my actual result (doesn't matter if you go over). The other winner I'll just draw at random from all the entries. I'll accept emails for the entire duration of my 30-day challenge, but if you want to be eligible for the "closest to actual result" winner, you've got to email by Sunday, August 14th. I reserve the right to change rules at any time if anyone tries to get cute with this thing -- it's all in fun, so play fair: one email per person.

8.08.2005

Day 1 Report

Daily result: +$1,960
Daily hands: 795

Total to date: +$1,960
Hands to date: 795

Comments:
Pretty happy to have gotten off on a modestly positive note with this little project, especially given the critical tone some of the comments had already started to take, albeit from a single dude. Not quite sure what it is about poker in particular that really gets people's competitive juices flowing. I guess in all walks of life you're going to find cynics who see two ways to make sure their building is the tallest in town: put in the effort to construct their own, or -- since it's so much easier -- simply decide to tear down someone else's. Anyone who's faithfully followed my previous blog will appreciate that naked boasting or bravado simply isn't in the spirit of my entries. This little experiment is just that: an experiment. To see just what I could accomplish playing at what would under almost any other circumstances amount to poker-burnout levels. If you want to check in every once and a while and see how it turns out, I'm happy to have you along.

Thank you also for the kind get-well wishes. Sadly, my jaw's wired shut for 2 weeks, but i'm slowly getting the hang of this liquid diet. Just strained a melted pint of Haagen-Daaz between my teeth and it was everything I knew it would be.

8.07.2005

Day T minus 1

Alright, let's get this show on the road -- I wish I could have gotten started before now, but recovery has simply been much tougher than I was expecting; my energy and concentration levels have just been shit. I can barely concentrate for more than a half hour at once, so conditions are far from ideal, but screw it, let's see what happens. It begins tomorrow, August 8th.